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Russia’s Central Bank upgrades trade balance surplus forecast for 2015 by 32% to $187 bln

The regulator also changed its forecast on trade balance surplus for 2016-2018

© Artyom Geodakyan/TASS

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MOSCOW, June 15. /TASS/. Russia’s Central Bank has upgraded its forecast on trade balance surplus forecast for 2015 from $141 bln to $187 bln, the regulator said in its monetary policy report on Monday.

The previous forecast by the Central Bank implied average Urals crude oil price at $50-55 per barrel in 2015 while the new forecast is based on average annual oil price at $60 per barrel in 2015.

The regulator also changed its forecast on trade balance surplus for 2016-2018. It provided two forecast scenarios depending on price of oil.

The first scenario implies oil price at $66 per barrel in 2016, the second one - at $60 per barrel. In first case the Bank of Russia forecasts external trade surplus at $104 bln, in second case - at $101 bln. In its previous forecast the regulator estimated external trade surplus at $90 bln at $60-65 per barrel oil price.

In 2017, depending on scenario /$74 per barrel and $60 per barrel oil price/ the Central Bank forecasts trade balance surplus at $117 bln and $81 bln respectively. Earlier at average annual oil price of $70-75 per barrel the regulator forecasted surplus at $119 bln.

According to the Central Bank, external trade surplus will total $121 bln in 2018 at $80 per barrel oil price, or $72 bln at $60 per barrel oil price.

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