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Moody's improves Russia’s GDP outlook for 2015-2016

May 27, 2015, 21:33 UTC+3 LONDON
Moody’s forecasts zero growth of the Russia’s GDP in 2016 as compared to 3% decline according to the previous research
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© EPA/FRANK RUMPENHORST

LONDON, May 27. /TASS/. Moody's Investors Service international rating agency improved the outlook for the Russian GDP in 2015-2016, the agency said on Wednesday.

Agency’s experts expect now the Russian GDP will contract by 3% in 2015 vs. 5.5% decline of the GDP under the previous outlook. Moody’s forecasts zero growth of the Russia’s GDP in 2016 as compared to 3% decline according to the previous research.

The Russian financial market stabilized since the end of January 2015 after the complicated fourth quarter of 2014, Moody’s said. According to the current outlook by Moody's, the recession in Russia may turn to be less significant and lengthy than expected earlier, agency’s experts said.

Action of the Bank of Russia on the key rate lowering contributed to the recovery of the economic situation in Russia along with the recovery at the global oil market, Moody's said. The average Brent oil price will be at the level of $55 a barrel in 2015 and at $65 a barrel in 2016, the rating agency reported.

Moody's experts expect the Central Bank of Russia will continue lowering the key rate at 2-3 next meetings and will address higher priority of the economic growth and the recent ruble recovery. Nevertheless, the monetary policy relaxation effect will most likely manifest during two and more quarters, considering the loan rates do not decline as quickly as the key rate, Moody's said.

According to the outlook of Moody's Investors Service, inflation in Russia will total 12% year-on-year in December 2015 and will slow down to 8.5% in 2016.

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