VIENNA, February 9. /TASS/. Russian oil exports in 2015 will drop by 60 thousand barrels a day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Monday.
Oil production in Russia will drop in 2015 by 70 thousand barrels a day, the report projected, "given the impact of sanctions, low prices and the absence of any large projects expected to come on-line."
"This makes declines from western Siberia’s mature fields more apparent," the cartel said. "Rosneft's production decreased 1.8% y-o-y to 3.8 million barrels a day in December, mainly due to lower output at its biggest production subsidiary, Yuganskneftegas, which operates brownfields in western Siberia. At the same time, some companies like Bashneft have continued to see steady growth in their output, with production increasing by 15.1% on the year to 382 thousand barrels a day in January. This has been due mainly to the doubling of production at the Trebs and Titov oilfields, along with a 5% increase in production from traditional fields in the Republic of Bashkortostan," the report said.
Though Russia plans to maintain production above 10 million barrels a day, it may fall in coming years if oil prices remain around $50 a barrel for an extended period of time, OPEC experts said. "As a result, the production outlook for the coming months is murky and suggests a possible decline of at least 70 thousand barrels a day to 10.5 million barrels a day in 2015," the report said.
Russian crude exports increased sharply in December to 4.4 million barrels a day due to the export duty being reduced to 42% in 2015 from 59%, according to OPEC’s report. Total output for 2015 is expected to be at 10.60 million barrels a day, 10.54 million barrels a day, 10.47 million barrels a day and 10.42 million barrels a day on a quarterly basis, the cartel said.
The organization also projects a decline in Russia’s GDP to 2.4% in 2015. "Russia’s 2015 growth forecast has been revised from 0% to show a contraction of 2.4%," the monthly report said.
OPEC left Russian oil production forecast for 2014 unchanged from the previous month - by 70 thousand barrels a day to average 10.58 million barrels a day, up from 0.07 million barrels a day in 2013.