MOSCOW, January 15th. / TASS /. Russia’s economic growth will resume in 2016-2017, Russian Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said on Thursday.
“It all very much depends on the global market, but we think that in 2016-2017 the dynamics of Russia’s GDP may turn out positive,” Ulyukayev said in an interview to Bloomberg.
Ulyukayev said the decline in GDP could reach 4.5% if the oil price remains at or around $45 per barrel in 2015.
“If we take into consideration the current situation, I mean the oil price at around $45 per barrel and presume that the price will remain the same for the entire year, in that case the real GDP decline will be at about 4.5%. This is one of the possible scenarios. I think that this is the worst of all possible scenarios, since we think that oil will cost more than it does now,” said Ulyukaev.
Earlier, Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexey Vedev said that the decline of Russia's GDP in the first quarter of 2015 in annual terms could exceed 1%. He noted that negative indicators of investment and consumption are expected in the first quarter on an annualized basis.
“In April, the ministry will prepare a revised forecast of socio-economic development for 2015, taking into account the first quarter,” said Vedev.
In late 2014 Ulyukaev said that according to preliminary data, the Russian economy in 2015 could fall by 3% if the price of oil remains at $60 per barrel. Currently, the oil prices are much lower than that.