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MOSCOW, December 23. /TASS/. The period of low oil prices may last 15 years, former Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin and head of the Economic Expert Group Yevsey Gurvich said in an article on new growth model analysis on Tuesday.
The authors of the article written for Economic Issues journal refer to an econometric analysis to describe the long-term oil price dynamics as a slowly growing trend influenced by large-scale cyclical fluctuations.
“The period of such fluctuations equaled about 30 years in the last decades. These conclusions together with the forecasts presented allow for an assumption that we've passed the peak of oil prices and entered a phase of their fall. Judging from the past experience, it may last 15 years,” the economists said.
The oil price downside trend is caused by the growing output of shale oil in the United States and the high likelihood of the return of Iran, Libya and Iraq to the market along with slowing demand for oil from developed and developing countries, the economists said.
“A sharp fall in oil prices in October-November 2014 shows that the process of falling hydrocarbon prices may accelerate considerably,” the authors said.