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Russian economics minister: rouble’s equilibrium exchange rate is 41-43 roubles per dollar

November 17, 2014, 21:35 UTC+3
Russia's inflation may reach 9% in 2014
1 pages in this article
© TASS

MOSCOW, November 17. /TASS/. Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said on Monday the rouble equilibrium exchange rate is to be 41-43 roubles per one U.S. dollar.

“The equilibrium or fair exchange rate should be at a level that makes it possible to offset the balance of payments without big slants,” he told the Ekho Moskvy radio station. “I think it will be in the range from 41 to 43 roubles per one U.S. dollar.

Russian companies will need to find 80 billion U.S. dollars from internal sources to repay foreign loans by 2015, so the upper limit of the negative balance the capital account will be about 80 billion U.S. dollars, he said. It is to be sealed by a surplus on the current account in a similar size.

“To have at a size of about 80 billion U.S. dollars, it will suffice to have the rouble exchange rate of 41-42 roubles per one dollar. Such exchange rate will ensure the import-export ratio enough to guarantee a positive balance of the current account,” he said.

But, in his words, due to the current inertia it would be right to have a bigger balance of the current account to “surpass the negative balance of the capital account with a bigger margin.”

“In this case, the exchange rate might be somewhat weaker. That is why I would say it should be in the range between 41 and 43 roubles per dollar,” he added.

Russia's inflation may reach nine percent by the yearend. Moreover, by the end of March 2015 the country's inflation rate may exceed the initial forecast by about 3.5 percent points, he said.

Russian minister of economic development does not expect OPEC to cut oil production quotas in a bid to increase stock exchange prices.

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