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Oil price dynamics no longer match forecasts — investment fund manager

October 10, 2014, 12:47 UTC+3 MOSCOW
It is difficult to predict at this point whether oil prices will continue to plunge further below $90 or bounce back to $100 per barrel, experts say
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© ITAR-TASS/EPA/GUILLAUME HORCAJUELO

MOSCOW, October 10. /TASS/. Global investors no longer dare to give forecasts on world oil price dynamics after Brent crude prices have nosedived below $90 per barrel, Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust manager Mark Mobius said on Friday.

World oil prices may plunge even further but a scenario is also likely that they may bounce back to $100 per barrel, he said.

Oil prices may obviously rise above $100 per barrel again but when investors look at raw material prices, they understand that everything is possible. If oil prices fall to $60 per barrel, this will be a short-lived trend in any case, Mobius said.

After all, the global demand for energy products, in particular, the demand for oil, is rising, the investment manager said.

It also has to be borne in mind that oil is valued in US dollars, which is not the same as the value of oil in other currencies. The US dollar is currently strengthening and therefore oil is becoming cheaper for the United States and more expensive for other countries, Mobius said.

Unpredictable trends

Mobius’ opinion was shared by investor Jim Rogers, manager of the investment fund Rogers Holdings, which focuses on investment in the raw material sector.

The plunge of world oil prices to $60 per barrel is naturally possible. Today almost everything is possible, he said in an interview with TASS, adding he did not rule out that world oil prices might bounce back to $100 per barrel until the end of 2014.

Anatoly Chubais, the architect of Russia’s voucher privatization in the early 1990s and currently head of Rusnano hi-tech government corporation, said early this week he did not believe in oil price forecasts at all.

Situation with oil prices

The world price of Brent crude oil has fallen to below $90 per barrel for the first time since December 2010.

A meeting of the OPEC alliance of petroleum exporting countries will be held in Vienna on November 27, and it may focus on possible cuts in oil output to bring oil prices back to $100 per barrel.

However, no consensus can currently be found among OPEC oil ministers. Saudi Arabia has cut oil prices under Asian contracts by $1.2 to $90.02 per barrel since October 1.

Oil traders told Platts energy news agency on Wednesday that an analysis of the futures market suggested there were grounds to expect another round of cuts in selling oil prices by Saudi Arabia by about $0.7-1.0 per barrel.

Russia’s official oil price forecast for 2014 prepared by the Economic Development Ministry is $104 per barrel of Urals blend. The ministry expects the price of Urals crude to equal $100 per barrel in 2015-2017 and has no plans to revise it, Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexey Vedev said on October 7.

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