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“As for Russia, the ban will disrupt well-established food import channels, pushing up its import prices and inflation,” the EBRD said.
The bank does not rule out a negative effect of the Russian food embargo on the gross domestic product dynamics because the capacity utilization in the food industry is only 4% lower than the average capacity usage across all sectors of the economy, and a 4% output increase will make for only 15% import replacement.
The sanctions will hit Lithuania most of all EU countries, because imports to Russia account for 2.7% of the national GDP. Norway, Poland and Hungary will suffer as well, while Brazil, Turkey, Belarus, possibly Serbia and China will benefit from the Russian policies, the EBRD said.