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LONDON, January 16. /ITAR-TASS/. In 2035 Russia will remain the world’s largest net exporter of energy, oil production growth in Russia largely contingent on development of tight oil fields, the chief economist of the British petroleum company BP, Christof Ruehl, told Itar-Tass.
On Wednesday, BP chief executive Robert Dudley and chief economist Christof Ruehl presented BP experts’ annual report World Energy Outlook a forecast of the world energy market till 2035.
According to Ruehl, production in Russia is relatively stable and will slightly increase in the future. Russia started reforms of its tax system to create technological environment for tight oil production, which would be the main component of production growth in Russia. By 2035 Russia will rank second by production volumes of tight oil, Ruehl forecast.
ВР experts estimated that between 2012 and 2035 electricity production and consumption in Russia will add 21 percent and 20 percent respectively. Its share in global electricity production and consumption will drop from 10 percent to 9 percent and from 6 percent to 5 percent. That said, Russia will stay the world’s largest oil and gas exporter.
In 2035 the production of liquids, namely oil and gas condensate in Russia, according to BP experts, will be 11 million barrels (1.5 million tonnes a day), 548 million tonnes a year. In 2012 Russia produced 518 million tonnes, and in 2013 - 523 million tonnes.
In 2035, ВР predicts, gas production in Russia will total 79 billion cubic feet (2.2 billion cubic meters) a day, or 807 billion cubic meters a year. In 2013, according to interim data, it was 672 billion cubic meters. In 2035 most of gas in Russia will be produced conventionally, with shale gas making up only 5 percent of the total amount. Even so, the experts believe, here Russia will underperform only the U.S.
Energy consumption increase will be adequately provided for by new nuclear power stations where energy production is forecast to add 72 percent by 2035, and hydroelectric power plants (plus 34 percent). Consumption of oil, gas and coal will rise 20 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent respectively.
Natural gas will remain Russia’s key energy source, yet its share will drop to 50 percent from the current 54 percent. Oil share will remain almost unchanged, while the coal portion will decline, ВР experts believe.
Energy consumption for power generation will rise 13 percent, whereas in the transport sector it will add 49 percent by 2035 amid increasing number of cars.
Despite increasing energy efficiency, energy intensity in 2035 will remain about twice as high as in the developed countries of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), which the experts explain with Russia’s “harsh climate” and “earlier stage of post-industrial development”.