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MOSCOW, December 10 (Itar-Tass) —— The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has specified its forecast for the balance of foreign trade in 20120-2013.
Deputy Minister Andrei Klepach said on Monday, December 10, that the surplus is expected at around 195 billion U.S. dollars compared to 191 billion U.S. dollars projected earlier.
The forecast for 2013 has also be raised from 125 billion U.S. dollars to 132 billion U.S. dollars.
The export forecast for 2012 has been lowered by 6 billion U.S. dollars, thus bringing year-on-year growth to 0.4 percent compared to 1.7 percent projected by the ministry earlier.
The export of natural gas in 2012 will amount to 180.2 billion cubic metres instead of 193.3 billion cubic metres (previous forecast). Gas production will also drop to 656 billion cubic metres (676 billion cubic metres projected earlier).
However, Klepach said that this will have no serious impact on GDP growth as import dynamics have also been revisited. The forecast has been downgraded by 8 billion U.S. dollars for 2012 and by 12 billion U.S. dollars for 2013.
Klepach said that, as a result, “the GDP projection remains unchanged.”
According to the ministry, GDP will grow by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Given the seasonal and calendar factors, the fourth quarter looks quite good,” Klepach said.
The GDP growth forecast for next year has been decreased by 0.1 percent to 3.6 percent.
Speaking of GDP quarterly statistics in 2013, Klepach said GDP would grow by 2.6 percent in the first quarter, by 3.5 percent in the second quarter, and by about 4 percent in the second half of the year.