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IEA lowers forecast for oil supply growth for non-OPEC countries in 2019

On December 7, OPEC members and other oil-exporting countries agreed to reduce crude production by 1.2 mln barrels per day in the first half of 2019

MOSCOW, December 13. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC countries for 2019 to 1.5 mkln barrels per day, taking into account the decision of OPEC+ deal participants to reduce production in the first half of 2019, according to the agency’s December report.

The forecast for supply growth for non-OPEC countries has been lowered by 415,000 barrels per day, including due to Russia's decision to cut production and slowdown in production growth in Canada. Earlier, the authorities of the Canadian province of Alberta decided to limit production by 325,000 barrels per day for three months in order to unload the overstocked storages.

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OPEC+ deal to ensure stability of oil price, that is positive for Russia, says Siluanov

The IEA has maintained the forecast for the growth of demand for 2019 at 1.4 mln barrels per day, despite decline of oil prices from October peaks. The effect of lower prices will be partially replaced by a slowdown in the economy. The report noted that while it is too early to say that the OPEC+ deal will be successful.

Nevertheless, oil reserves in storage facilities of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have been growing for the fourth month in a row, the report said. In October, it increased by 5.7 mln barrels to 2.872 mln barrels, which is the maximum level since January of this year, and for the first time in several months exceeded the average level in five years by 11 mln barrels.

According to the report, production of OPEC countries in November increased by 100,000 barrels per day to 33.03 mln barrels due to the record intensive growth of production in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

On December 7, OPEC members and other oil-exporting countries agreed to reduce crude production by 1.2 mln barrels per day in the first half of 2019.

As a result of the signed deal, Russia agreed to reduce oil production by 2% from the level of October 2018, that is, by about 228,000 barrels per day.

According to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Russia is expecting from January 2019 to evenly reduce oil production - a month by about 50,000-60,000 barrels per day compared to the level of October of the current year.

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