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Ukraine’s parliamentary coalition around Party of Regions unlikely to be stable

November 02, 2012, 15:15 UTC+3
According to information from the country’s Central Elections Commission,the Party of Regions will have 186 deputies out of 450 seats
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KIEV, November 2 (Itar-Tass) — Ukraine’s ruling Party of Regions at the new parliament will not be able to organise the majority, which is to form the cabinet.

According to information from the country’s Central Elections Commission, where calculation of electronic protocols is being finalised, the Party of Regions will have 186 deputies out of 450 seats, while a simple majority requires 226 mandates. The power’s opponents – three parties – Batkivshchyna, UDAR and Svoboda together are receiving 182 mandates. The opposition’s reserve for a coalition is minimal, as they may hope only for several self-nominees, for who the ruling party is hoping, too.

The so-called ‘independent candidates,’ the hope of the Party of Regions, are mostly high-ranking officials, major businesses or regional activists, who participated in the election following instructions from the ruling party. It is highly probable that out of 43 candidates, the independent ones, at least a half may join the Party of regions, but then the ruling party still does not gain the necessary 226 mandates. This situation, being practically desperate, pushes the party to establish blocs with communists, who are claiming for 32 mandates. But communists avoid official references with the power. “The communists are preparing already for the presidential election in 2015, where their leader Petr Simonenko will run for presidency. The parry is not rushing to establish a coalition with the ruling party, so that later on it does not have to be responsible for failures in the economic reforms,” Head of the Penta Centre for Political Analysis Vladimir Fesenko said. He is sure the Party of Regions will still have to hope for the independent candidates in order to establish a parliamentary majority without communists.

It is also important, that the Party of Regions also have an option of six out of seven deputies, who passed the elections from other parties – three from United Centre /including Minister of Emergency Situations Viktor Baloga/, two from the People’s Party /one of them is the current parliamentary Speaker Vladimir Litvin/ and deputy of left Soyuz party. Thus, the present power maintains its influence at the Verkhovna Rada in the form of simple majority, which, no doubt, will not be stable, but rather depending on situations and rather unstable. This means, like it used to be in the parliament of the earlier convocation, there will not be easy passing for disputable bills.

At the same time, most observers say the situation with the standing of forces inside the parliament may change closer to 2015, where Ukraine will have its presidential election. “Under the current political situation, communists and deputies outside factions will mind the presidential administration, but as 2015 is approaching, the situation at Rada may be changing,” Head of Sotsizmereniye Centre for Social and Political Research Sergei Taran. In his opinion, Ukraine’s newest history has many examples confirming most deputies, as they start feeling a possible change of the power, cease to be a reliable support for head of the country.

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