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Russia experts foresee no serious fluctuations in oil prices in middle-term perspective

June 09, 2012, 15:15 UTC+3

The oil price will vary around 100 U.S. dollars per barrel

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MOSCOW, June 9 (Itar-Tass) — Russia’s energy agency expects no major fluctuations in oil prices in the middle-term perspective. The oil price will vary around 100 U.S. dollars per barrel, the agency’s head, Leonid Grigoryev, told a briefing on Saturday.

According to the expert, OPEC countries seem to be comfortable in the current price situation. There are enough forces across the globe that are not interested in lower oil prices, he noted.

If the oil price drops below 80 U.S. dollars per barrel, the implementation of President Vladimir Putin’s election pledges seems to be problematic, it not impossible, Grigoryev said. In his words, even proceeds from the sale of state-owned companies will hardly be enough to cover budget losses from lower oil prices.

According to Dmitry Miroshnichenko, a research fellow with the Development Centre of the Higher School of Economics, when the oil price is 100 U.S. dollars per barrel, the rouble exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (1:32) is rather objective, which is beneficial for Russia’s modernization program.

If the situation in Europe worsens over the Greek problems, Russia’s private banks will be the first to be affected by the lack of liquidity. “Now banks have got used to live in conditions of cash inflow and in new conditions they might be stripped of bonds,” Grigoryev said. At the same time, he voiced optimism that the experience of the 2008 recession will help evade serious aftermaths.

Experts arrived at a conclusion that there are no grounds to expect serious crisis phenomena in Russia.

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