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Innovative development to ensure sustainable capital inflow in Russian economy - forecast

April 13, 2012, 22:18 UTC+3
The conservative scenario stipulates a neutral policy of the Central Bank on the currency market
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MOSCOW, April 13 (Itar-Tass) —— The Economic Development Ministry forecasts sustainable capital inflow in the Russian economy in the case of national development by the innovative model, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said on Friday referring to the long-term socioeconomic development forecast for the period until 2030.

“There will be net capital inflow throughout the forecast period at 1.4%-2.3% GDP, but that will require the Central Bank’s provision of a relevant level of foreign currency reserves,” he said.

Current transactions will be balanced in the forecasted period mostly with the weakening of the ruble exchange rate. The real effective ruble exchange rate will be 14.6% lower than in 2011 by 2025, while its dynamics will stabilize and grow in the following years. The innovative scenario stipulates Central Bank interventions on the currency market against the backdrop of sustainable capital inflow in order to prevent operating account deficits.

The conservative scenario stipulates a neutral policy of the Central Bank on the currency market. It implies an insignificant capital inflow, 0-0.4% GDP. The low capital inflow will lead to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate, which will be 16.5% lower than in 2010 by 2030. Throughout the forecasted period there will be a minor deficit in current transactions, 0.1-0.5% GDP.

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