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Rouble practically compensates for morning decline by midday

March 15, 2012, 17:07 UTC+3
The cost of the dual currency basket of 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars, rose by midday by 2 kopecks to the mark of 33.54 roubles
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MOSCOW, March 15 (Itar-Tass) — The Russian rouble by the middle of the day almost compensated for the morning loss. Meanwhile, on Thursday morning, the rouble fell by about 10 kopecks to the dollar-euro basket, and the fall was observed mainly against the dollar. This was happening against the background of the euro-dollar rate decline, correction of the Russian stock market and a certain rollback of oil prices.

Further, the market situation started to change - the euro together with the dollar from the serious support level of 1.30 rose to the mark of 1.3060 dollars per euro. The Russian stock market also began to recover after the morning decline. All this combined with the continuing deficit of rouble liquidity in banks supported the rouble, which by mid-day restored a considerable part of the lost positions both to the dollar and the dual currency basket as a whole.

The dollar rate for tomorrow settlements on the MICEX currency trading session by mid-day grew by 2 kopecks against the previous closure and reached 29.49 roubles, euro – by 3 kopecks - up to 38.51 roubles.

The cost of the dual currency basket of 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars, rose by midday by 2 kopecks to the mark of 33.54 roubles.

As for the energy market, consolidation is observed there on Thursday. Brent crude futures that on Wednesday declined from 126 to 125 dollars per barrel after the appearance of the data on US petroleum products reserves, on Thursday remained at that level. The oil price of 120-125 dollars per barrel poses no threat to the Russian currency, experts say.

According to analysts of Promsvyazbank (PSB), the rouble on the Russian currency market is likely to continue to change in pair with the dollar within the range of 29.40 – 29.78 roubles for a dollar. It is highly probable that it will test the upper limit of the indicated range in case of the resumed fall of the euro-dollar rate and decline in oil prices, which may occur because of Thursday’s fulfilment of nearby Brent crude contracts. In this case, the only thing that can keep the rouble from a significant decline is the tax period beginning Thursday that which traditionally starts with companies’ insurance payments.

On Thursday, the liquidity in the banking sector remains factually the same - the amount of balance on correspondent accounts and deposits in the Central Bank is 925 billion roubles.

Thursday is the last day of payment of insurance premiums, which, according to analysts of B&N BANK, may withdraw 30-40 billion roubles from the market. However, no significant change in the situation is expected in the coming days. The really large tax payments will begin next week, and starting from Tuesday-Wednesday, a new growth in demand for rouble resources can be expected, and the monetary market rates are to return to the mark of around 5 percent annual interest.

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